We create models of synchronized economic fluctuations between different factors as well as its ripple effects based on economy-related big data to analyze the mechanism behind economic fluctuations and build a system that can predict economic crises. We also create a logical macroprudential framework to prevent instability in financial systems in response to the growing global interest for a stable financial system ever since the Lehman bankruptcy in 2008.
Our Position in Post-K Project
Under the FLAGSHIP 2020 Project, initiated by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology in 2014, the Post-K project addresses nine priority issues and four exploratory challenges. We tackle the theme "Macroeconomic simulations" under one of the exploratory challenges, titled the "Studies of Multi-level Spatiotemporal Simulation of Socioeconomic Phenomena" which aims to develop technologies to predict and control issues in socioeconomic phenomena.
Message from Subproject A Leader Yoshi Fujiwara
K and Post-K supercomputers and high-performance computing has been used extensively in the fields of elementary particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology, condensed matter physics, chemistry, biology and life science. Still there is unexplored and unmapped field of social science, in which a huge amount of data on human, economic, social issues are available today, and also interesting and ubiquitous empirical “laws” have been found in the past. This project focuses on understanding macroeconomic phenomena, such as business cycles, deflation and inflation, and systemic risk of financial distress propagation, based on real and big data on firms and banks, and also nationwide economic networks of supplier-customer and creditor-debtor relationships among them. This project has collaborators of economists, physicists, and computer scientists from all over the world, and applies supercomputers to simulations and estimations in models of macroeconomic phenomena.
Message from Project Leader Nobuyasu Ito
Explosive growth of computer performance has been bringing us the better grasp of global society. Now with top computers, a new era of social applications has begun: microscopic simulations of our world and society. Such top computers with 10PFLOPS or more performance, simulations of billions to trillions of complex elements possible, and the number and their complexity will grow with next Exascale and future Zetascale computers. With such computational power, we can challenge complex behavior of substance with direct simulation using molecular models, and social phenomena using models of each human, each vehicle and each transaction distributed and networked in global space. This team challenges such microscopic simulations for macroscopic phenomena, which we call the “Neo-Avogadro Challenge”, with K and future computers of Exascale and beyond.